Game Result Predictions
Friday, March 23
The Resid and Elo Predictions calculates each team's final score, margin of victory (spread), and probability of winning the game.
Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Nevada (29-24) 5 6 +1.0 46% ✘ 5 +0.5 47% ✘
Fresno State (30-24) 1 7 -1.0 54% 6 -0.5 53%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Air Force (22-29) 10 8 -1.0 54% ✔ 6 +1.0 42% ✘
New Mexico (20-33-1) 4 7 +1.0 46% 7 -1.0 58%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
San Jose State (27-30) 2 4 +2.0 42% ✔ 4 +0.5 51% ✔
UC Santa Barbara (27-28-1) 9 6 -2.0 58% 5 -0.5 49%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
San Diego State (39-21) 3 6 +1.0 46% ✔ 7 -2.0 61% ✘
UNLV (35-24) 4 7 -1.0 54% 5 +2.0 39%

Friday, March 23 Results
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 75%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 25%
Overall Results (851 games)
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 71%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 68%

The goal for the Game Result Predictions is to determine winners at a rate greater than 70%.